Abstract: This work investigates the inconsistency between forecasts issued at different times but valid for the same time, and shows that ensemble-mean forecasts are less inconsistent than corresponding control forecasts. The ...

Abstract: The effects of observation errors on rank histograms and reliability diagrams are investigated using a perfect model approach. The three-variable Lorenz-63 model was used to simulate an idealized ensemble prediction system ...

Abstract: AbstractEarly awareness of extreme precipitation can provide the time necessary to make adequate event preparations. At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), one tool that condenses the forecast ...

Abstract: The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration ...

Abstract: recipitation forecasts from five global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are verified against rain gauge observations using the new stable equitable error in probability space (SEEPS) score. It is based on a 3 ? ...

Abstract: n the last decade operational probabilistic ensemble flood forecasts have become common in supporting decision-making processes leading to risk reduction. Ensemble forecasts can assess uncertainty, but they are limited to ...

Abstract: A key aim of observational campaigns is to sample atmosphere–ocean phenomena to improve understanding of these phenomena, and in turn, numerical weather prediction. In early 2018 and 2019, the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance ...