Abstract: AbstractWhile chaos ensures that probabilistic weather forecasts cannot always be ?sharp,? it is important for users and developers that they are reliable. For example, they should not be overconfident or underconfident. ...

Abstract: AbstractTropical cyclones are some of the most devastating natural hazards and the ?three beasts??Harvey, Irma, and Maria?during the Atlantic hurricane season 2017 are recent examples. The European Centre for Medium-Range ...