Abstract: Rank histograms are often plotted to evaluate the forecasts produced by an ensemble forecasting system?an ideal rank histogram is ?flat? or uniform. It has been noted previously that the obvious test of ?flatness,? the ...

Abstract: sing the recently developed mean?variance of logarithms (MVL) diagram, together with The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive of medium-range ...

Abstract: Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality ...