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Evaluating Rank Histograms Using Decompositions of the Chi-Square Test Statistic
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Rank histograms are often plotted to evaluate the forecasts produced by an ensemble forecasting system?an ideal rank histogram is ?flat? or uniform. It has been noted previously that the obvious test of ?flatness,? the ...
Spatiotemporal Behavior of the TIGGE Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: sing the recently developed mean?variance of logarithms (MVL) diagram, together with The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive of medium-range ...
Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality ...