Abstract: he inherent predictability of tropical cyclone tracks has received much attention since the 1980s. It is still an issue because of the recent improvement of track forecasts by numerical models. The aim of this study is to ...

Abstract: In a nonlinear quasigeostrophic model with uniform potential vorticity, an idealized initial state sharing some features with atmospheric low-predictability situations is built. Inspired by previous work on idealized ...

Abstract: Midlatitude cyclogenesis as interpreted in the framework of either baroclinic development or potential vorticity thinking heavily relies on the concept of synoptic-scale anomaly. Given the existence of potential vorticity ...

Abstract: Mechanisms leading a synoptic surface cyclone to cross an upper-level zonal jet and its subsequent deepening are investigated using a two-layer model on a ? plane. The baroclinic interaction of a low-level circular cyclonic ...

Abstract: everal tropical cyclone forecasting centers issue uncertainty information with regard to their official track forecasts, generally using the climatological distribution of position error. However, such methods are not able ...

Abstract: he rapid intensification of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Dora (2007, southwest Indian Ocean) under upper-level trough forcing is investigated. TC?trough interaction is simulated using a limited-area operational numerical weather ...