Abstract: Seasons are the complex nonlinear response of the physical climate system to regular annual solar forcing. There is no a priori reason why they should remain fixed/invariant from year to year, as is often assumed in climate ...

Abstract: This study presents a new simple approach for combining empirical with raw (i.e., not bias corrected) coupled model ensemble forecasts in order to make more skillful interval forecasts of ENSO. A Bayesian normal model has ...

Abstract: The Indian summer monsoon rainfall is the net result of an ensemble of synoptic disturbances, many of which are extremely intense. Sporadic systems often bring extreme amounts of rain over only a few days, which can have ...