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RISRandom Forcing and Forecasting Using Principal Oscillation Pattern Analysis
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The effects of random forcing and deterministic feedback are combined in a measured multivariate time series. It is shown here how the characteristics of the driving noise can be found after the deterministic effects have ...
The Nyquist Issue in Linear Inverse Modeling
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractLinear inverse modeling (LIM) is a statistical technique based on covariance statistics that estimates the best-fit linear Markov process to a multivariate time series. An integral, often-ignored part of the technique ...
Noise Out of Chaos and Why it Won't Go Away
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: It seems that stochastic climate models are beginning to be fashionable. In this article, current theories of where noise comes from, its relation to chaos, and how temperamental a numerical treatment of noise in a climate ...
Prediction of Niño 3 Sea Surface Temperatures Using Linear Inverse Modeling
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Linear inverse modeling is used to predict sea surface temperatures (SSTS) in the Niño 3 region. Predictors in three geographical locations are used: the tropical Pacific Ocean, the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, and ...
A Balance Condition for Stochastic Numerical Models with Application to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Stochastic forcing due to unresolved processes adds energy to a measurable system. Although this energy is added randomly in time, conservation laws still apply. A balance condition for stochastically driven systems is ...
Expected and Actual Errors of Linear Inverse Model Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The authors discuss forecast uncertainty, which should be employed for the purpose of judging prediction model performance, and actual forecast errors, which can be employed by users to judge the reliability of the forecasts. ...
Prediction of Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures Using Linear Inverse Modeling
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The predictability of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature on seasonal to interannual timescales by linear inverse modeling is quantified. The authors find that predictability of Caribbean Sea and north tropical ...
Forecasting Northern Hemisphere 700-mb Geopotential Height Anomalies Using Empirical Normal Modes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Multivariate linear prediction based on single-lag inverse modeling is developed further and critically examined. The method is applied to the National Meteorological Center analyses of Northern Hemisphere 700-mb geopotential ...
Studies of El Niño and Interdecadal Variability in Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures Using a Nonnormal Filter
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A dynamically based filter is used to separate tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) into three components: the evolving El Niño signal, the global tropical trend, and the background. The components thus isolated are ...