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RISA Large Ensemble Analysis of the Influence of Tropical SSTs on Seasonal Atmospheric Variability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Based on a 40-member ensemble for the January?March (JFM) seasonal mean for the 1980?2000 period using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), interannual variability in the first and second moments of probability ...
A Comparison of Skill between Two Versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPC’s Operational Short-Lead Seasonal Outlooks
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: nalyses of the relative prediction skills of NOAA?s Climate Forecast System versions 1 and 2 (CFSv1 and CFSv2, respectively), and the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center?s (CPC) operational seasonal outlook, are conducted over ...
Is There a Relationship between Potential and Actual Skill?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n this paper, possible connections between actual and potential skill are discussed. Actual skill refers to when the prediction time series is validated against the observations as the verification while perfect skill ...
SST-Forced Atmospheric Variability in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: From ensembles of 80 AGCM simulations for every December?January?February (DJF) seasonal mean in the 1980?2000 period, interannual variability in atmospheric response to interannual variations in observed sea surface ...
An Analysis of CPC’s Operational 0.5-Month Lead Seasonal Outlooks
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n analysis and verification of 15 years of Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational seasonal surface temperature and precipitation climate outlooks over the United States is presented for the shortest and most commonly ...
Simulation Skills of the SST-Forced Global Climate Variability of the NCEP–MRF9 and the Scripps–MPI ECHAM3 Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The global responses of two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction?Medium Range Forecast (NCEP?MRF9) and the University of Hamburg climate model?3 (ECHAM), to ...
Seasonal Tropical–Extratropical Teleconnections Originating from Tropical Rainfall Modes Independent of the Niño-3.4 Index in Northern Winters
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictability and Prediction of North American Climate—The Atlantic Influence
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The question of the impact of the Atlantic on North American (NA) seasonal prediction skill and predictability is examined. Basic material is collected from the literature, a review of seasonal forecast procedures in Canada ...
Changes in the Spread of the Variability of the Seasonal Mean Atmospheric States Associated with ENSO
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: For a fixed sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, the variability of the observed seasonal mean atmospheric states in the extratropical latitudes can be characterized in terms of probability distribution functions (PDFs). ...
On the Challenge for ENSO Cycle Prediction: An Example from NCEP Climate Forecast System, Version 2
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This work demonstrates the influence of the initial amplitude of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) associated with El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) following its evolutionary phase on the forecast skill of ENSO ...