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    Does An ENSO-Conditional Skill Mask Improve Seasonal Predictions? 

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2013:;volume( 141 ):;issue: 012:;page 4515
    Author(s): Pegion, Kathy; Kumar, Arun
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Prediction Center uses statistical tools together with the Climate Forecast System (CFS) to produce forecasts for seasonal outlooks of U.S. temperature and precipitation. ...
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    The Impact of Air–Sea Interactions on the Simulation of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability 

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2008:;volume( 021 ):;issue: 024:;page 6616
    Author(s): Pegion, Kathy; Kirtman, Ben P.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The impact of coupled air?sea feedbacks on the simulation of tropical intraseasonal variability is investigated in this study using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System. The simulation ...
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    The Impact of Air–Sea Interactions on the Predictability of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation 

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2008:;volume( 021 ):;issue: 022:;page 5870
    Author(s): Pegion, Kathy; Kirtman, Ben P.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: This study investigates whether air?sea interactions contribute to differences in the predictability of the boreal winter tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TISO) using the NCEP operational climate model. A series of ...
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    Prospects for Improving Subseasonal Predictions 

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2011:;volume( 139 ):;issue: 011:;page 3648
    Author(s): Pegion, Kathy; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: xtending atmospheric prediction skill beyond the predictability limit of about 10 days for daily weather rests on the hope that some time-averaged aspects of anomalous circulations remain predictable at longer forecast ...
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    Local Air–Sea Relationship in Observations and Model Simulations 

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2006:;volume( 019 ):;issue: 019:;page 4914
    Author(s): Wu, Renguang; Kirtman, Ben P.; Pegion, Kathy
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The present study compares the local simultaneous correlation between rainfall?evaporation and sea surface temperature (SST)?SST tendency among observations, coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, and ...
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    Internal Atmospheric Dynamics and Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate Variability 

    Source: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences:;2005:;Volume( 062 ):;issue: 007:;page 2220
    Author(s): Kirtman, Ben P.; Pegion, Kathy; Kinter, Saul M.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: One possible explanation for tropical sea surface temperature (SST) interannual variability is that it can be accurately described by a linear autoregressive model with damped coupled feedbacks and stochastic forcing. This ...
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    The South Pacific Meridional Mode as a Thermally Driven Source of ENSO Amplitude Modulation and Uncertainty 

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2018:;volume 031:;issue 013:;page 5127
    Author(s): Larson, Sarah M.; Pegion, Kathy V.; Kirtman, Ben P.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractThis study seeks to identify thermally driven sources of ENSO amplitude and uncertainty, as they are relatively unexplored compared to wind-driven sources. Pacific meridional modes are argued to be wind triggers ...
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    Seasonal Predictability of Summer Rainfall over South America 

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2018:;volume 031:;issue 020:;page 8181
    Author(s): Bombardi, Rodrigo J.; Trenary, Laurie; Pegion, Kathy; Cash, Benjamin; DelSole, Timothy; Kinter, James L.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractThe seasonal predictability of austral summer rainfall is evaluated in a set of retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) performed as part of the Minerva and Metis projects. Both projects use the European Centre for ...
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    Subseasonal Prediction with and without a Well-Represented Stratosphere in CESM1 

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2020:;volume( 035 ):;issue: 006:;page 2589
    Author(s): Richter, Jadwiga H.;Pegion, Kathy;Sun, Lantao;Kim, Hyemi;Caron, Julie M.;Glanville, Anne;LaJoie, Emerson;Yeager, Stephen;Kim, Who M.;Tawfik, Ahmed;Collins, Dan
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
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