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Does An ENSO-Conditional Skill Mask Improve Seasonal Predictions?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Prediction Center uses statistical tools together with the Climate Forecast System (CFS) to produce forecasts for seasonal outlooks of U.S. temperature and precipitation. ...
The Impact of Air–Sea Interactions on the Simulation of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The impact of coupled air?sea feedbacks on the simulation of tropical intraseasonal variability is investigated in this study using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System. The simulation ...
The Impact of Air–Sea Interactions on the Predictability of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study investigates whether air?sea interactions contribute to differences in the predictability of the boreal winter tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TISO) using the NCEP operational climate model. A series of ...
Prospects for Improving Subseasonal Predictions
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: xtending atmospheric prediction skill beyond the predictability limit of about 10 days for daily weather rests on the hope that some time-averaged aspects of anomalous circulations remain predictable at longer forecast ...
Local Air–Sea Relationship in Observations and Model Simulations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The present study compares the local simultaneous correlation between rainfall?evaporation and sea surface temperature (SST)?SST tendency among observations, coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, and ...
Internal Atmospheric Dynamics and Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate Variability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: One possible explanation for tropical sea surface temperature (SST) interannual variability is that it can be accurately described by a linear autoregressive model with damped coupled feedbacks and stochastic forcing. This ...
The South Pacific Meridional Mode as a Thermally Driven Source of ENSO Amplitude Modulation and Uncertainty
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThis study seeks to identify thermally driven sources of ENSO amplitude and uncertainty, as they are relatively unexplored compared to wind-driven sources. Pacific meridional modes are argued to be wind triggers ...
Seasonal Predictability of Summer Rainfall over South America
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe seasonal predictability of austral summer rainfall is evaluated in a set of retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) performed as part of the Minerva and Metis projects. Both projects use the European Centre for ...
Subseasonal Prediction with and without a Well-Represented Stratosphere in CESM1
Publisher: American Meteorological Society