Abstract: Several localized versions of the ensemble Kalman filter have been proposed. Although tests applying such schemes have proven them to be extremely promising, a full basic understanding of the rationale and limitations of ...

Abstract: Previously developed techniques that have been used to extract envelopes of Rossby wave packets are based on the assumption of zonally propagating waves. In this note a method that does not require such an assumption is ...

Abstract: Model error is the component of the forecast error that is due to the difference between the dynamics of the atmosphere and the dynamics of the numerical prediction model. The systematic, slowly varying part of the model ...

Abstract: Packets of Rossby waves play an important role in the transfer of kinetic energy in the extratropics. The ability to locate, track, and detect changes in the envelope of these wave packets is vital to detecting baroclinic ...

Abstract: In this paper, the spatiotemporally changing nature of predictability is studied in a reduced-resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS), a state-of-the-art ...