Abstract: In an earlier paper the authors described the use of ensemble information for the generation of early warnings of defined severe-weather events within the United Kingdom. A comprehensive verification of the system was also ...

Abstract: A system has been developed to give probabilistic warnings of severe-weather events for the United Kingdom (UK) on a regional and national basis, based on forecast output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

Abstract: Current operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are designed specifically for medium-range forecasting, but there is also considerable interest in predictability in the short range, particularly for potential ...

Abstract: One possible method of incorporating model sensitivities into ensemble forecasting systems is to combine ensembles run from two or more models. Furthermore, the use of more than one analysis, to which perturbations are ...

Abstract: sion of weather forecasts for the London Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2012 offered the opportunity for the Met Office to accelerate the transition to operations of several advanced numerical modeling capabilities and ...