Abstract: The method of adjoint data assimilation is applied in a quasi-geostrophic (QG) open-ocean model of the Gulf Stream region. The results of data assimilation experiments are presented in which simulated AXBT and satellite ...

Abstract: Subsurface temperature data from the ship-of-opportunity network in the tropical Pacific Ocean was assimilated into a simple reduced-gravity model. A large initialization shock was found to occur in the model which takes ...

Abstract: Data assimilation in models of the tropical oceans can generate spurious equatorial wave modes which are potentially harmful to the model background fields. The amplitudes of these spurious wave modes can often be large ...

Abstract: For any forecasting system, the ability to reliably estimate the skill of a forecast in advance (i.e., at the time the forecast is issued) is clearly desirable. In this paper the potential of ensemble prediction for ...

Abstract: A global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice general circulation model is used to study interannual variability in the Tropics. Flux correction is used to control the mean climate of the coupled system, and in one configuration ...

Abstract: It is argued that a major fundamental limitation on the predictability of the El Niño?Southern Oscillation phenomenon is provided by the stochastic forcing of the tropical coupled ocean?atmosphere system by atmospheric ...

Abstract: Determination of the reliability of particular ENSO forecasts is of particular importance to end users. Theoretical arguments are developed that indicate that the amplitudes of slowly decaying (or growing) normal modes of ...

Abstract: The optimal perturbations (singular vectors) of a dynamical coupled model, a hybrid coupled model, and a linear inverse model of ENSO are compared. The hybrid coupled model consists of a dynamical ocean model and a statistical ...

Abstract: Using the ideas of generalized linear stability theory, the authors examine the potential role that tropical variability on synoptic?intraseasonal timescales can play in controlling variability on seasonal?interannual ...

Abstract: The idea that intraseasonal variability in the tropical west Pacific can act as an effective means of stochastically forcing ENSO episodes is explored. Using the ideas of generalized linear stability theory as they apply ...