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RISThe Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast ...
A Strategy for Verifying Near-Convection-Resolving Model Forecasts at Observing Sites
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: outine verification of deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts from the convection-permitting 4-km (UK4) and near-convection-resolving 1.5-km (UKV) configurations of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) ...
The Retrieval of Ice Water Content from Radar Reflectivity Factor and Temperature and Its Use in Evaluating a Mesoscale Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Ice clouds are an important yet largely unvalidated component of weather forecasting and climate models, but radar offers the potential to provide the necessary data to evaluate them. First in this paper, coordinated ...
Toward the Operational Application of Hygroscopic Flares for Rainfall Enhancement in South Africa
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A major challenge of any operational cloud seeding project is the evaluation of the results. This paper describes the development of verification techniques based on data collected during the first South African operational ...
The Setup of the MesoVICT Project
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractRecent advancements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and the enhancement of model resolution have created the need for more robust and informative verification methods. In response to these needs, a plethora ...