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Predictors of Tropical Cyclone Numbers and Extreme Hurricane Intensities over the North Atlantic Using Generalized Additive and Linear Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Fluctuations of the annual number of tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and of the energy dissipated by the most intense hurricane of a season are related to a variety of predictors [global temperature, SST and ...
Clustering of Maxima: Spatial Dependencies among Heavy Rainfall in France
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ne of the main objectives of statistical climatology is to extract relevant information hidden in complex spatial?temporal climatological datasets. To identify spatial patterns, most well-known statistical techniques are ...
Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts Using Quantile Regression Forests and Ensemble Model Output Statistics
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: nsembles used for probabilistic weather forecasting tend to be biased and underdispersive. This paper proposes a statistical method for postprocessing ensembles based on quantile regression forests (QRF), a generalization ...
Improved Gridded Wind Speed Forecasts by Statistical Postprocessing of Numerical Models with Block Regression
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: umerical weather forecast errors are routinely corrected through statistical postprocessing by several national weather services. These statistical postprocessing methods build a regression function called model output ...
Forest-Based and Semiparametric Methods for the Postprocessing of Rainfall Ensemble Forecasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractTo satisfy a wide range of end users, rainfall ensemble forecasts have to be skillful for both low precipitation and extreme events. We introduce local statistical postprocessing methods based on quantile regression ...
SPLIDHOM: A Method for Homogenization of Daily Temperature Observations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ne major concern of climate change is the possible rise of temperature extreme events, in terms of occurrence and intensity. To study this phenomenon, reliable daily series are required, for instance to compute daily-based ...
ARPEGE Cloud Cover Forecast Postprocessing with Convolutional Neural Network
Publisher: American Meteorological Society