Abstract: It is shown that sequences of lagged ensemble-derived probability forecasts can be treated as being realizations of a discrete, finite-step Markov chain. A reforecast ensemble dataset is used to explore this idea for the ...

Abstract: Monte Carlo simulation of sequences of lagged ensemble probability forecasts is undertaken using Markov transition law estimated from a reforecast ensemble. A simple three-state, three-action dynamic decision model is then ...

Abstract: Two regional local energetics composites of tropospheric-deep cyclone decay were constructed based upon 49 cyclones in the Gulf of Alaska region and 18 cyclones in the Bering Sea region whose decay was marked by rapid ...

Abstract: The impact of stochastic convection on ensembles produced using the ensemble transform (ET) initial perturbation scheme is examined. This note compares the behavior of ensemble forecasts based only on initial ET perturbations ...

Abstract: The ensemble transform (ET) scheme changes forecast perturbations into analysis perturbations whose amplitudes and directions are consistent with a user-provided estimate of analysis error covariance. A practical demonstration ...

Abstract: tochastic parameterization has become commonplace in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models used for probabilistic prediction. Here a specific stochastic parameterization will be related to the theory of stochastic ...

Abstract: he performance of the U.S. Navy global atmospheric ensemble prediction system is examined with a focus on tropical winds and tropical cyclone tracks. Ensembles are run at a triangular truncation of T119, T159, and T239, ...

Abstract: A computationally inexpensive ensemble transform (ET) method for generating high-resolution initial perturbations for regional ensemble forecasts is introduced. The method provides initial perturbations that (i) have an ...