Abstract: The human impacts of changes in heat events depend on changes in the joint behavior of temperature and humidity. Little is currently known about these complex joint changes, either in observations or projections from general ...

Abstract: AbstractRecent observed climate trends result from a combination of external radiative forcing and internally generated variability. To better contextualize these trends and forecast future ones, it is necessary to properly ...

Abstract: he climatological annual cycle in surface air temperature, defined by its amplitude and phase lag with respect to solar insolation, is one of the most familiar aspects of the climate system. Here, the authors identify three ...

Abstract: AbstractApplication of random sampling techniques to composite differences between 18 El Niño and 14 La Niña events observed since 1920 reveals considerable uncertainty in both the pattern and amplitude of the Northern ...

Abstract: AbstractEstimates of the climate response to anthropogenic forcing contain irreducible uncertainty due to the presence of internal variability. Accurate quantification of this uncertainty is critical for both contextualizing ...

Abstract: here is considerable interest in determining whether recent changes in the temperature distribution extend beyond simple shifts in the mean. The authors present a framework based on quantile regression, wherein trends are ...

Abstract: AbstractMultidecadal variability in the North Atlantic jet stream in general circulation models (GCMs) is compared with that in reanalysis products of the twentieth century. It is found that almost all models exhibit ...