Abstract: Stochastic forcing due to unresolved processes adds energy to a measurable system. Although this energy is added randomly in time, conservation laws still apply. A balance condition for stochastically driven systems is ...

Abstract: The authors discuss forecast uncertainty, which should be employed for the purpose of judging prediction model performance, and actual forecast errors, which can be employed by users to judge the reliability of the forecasts. ...

Abstract: The predictability of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature on seasonal to interannual timescales by linear inverse modeling is quantified. The authors find that predictability of Caribbean Sea and north tropical ...

Abstract: A dynamically based filter is used to separate tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) into three components: the evolving El Niño signal, the global tropical trend, and the background. The components thus isolated are ...

Abstract: A linear inverse model (LIM) is used to predict Pacific (30°S?60°N) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), including the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The LIM is derived from the observed simultaneous and lagged ...