Abstract: The Brier and ranked probability skill scores are widely used as skill metrics of probabilistic forecasts of weather and climate. As skill scores, they compare the extent to which a forecast strategy outperforms a (usually ...

Abstract: This is the second of a two-part investigation of rainfall in southern Africa during the strong El Niño of 1997/98. In Part I it was shown that widespread drought in southern Africa, typical of past El Niño events occurring ...

Abstract: Following the onset of the strong El Niño of 1997?98 historical rainfall teleconnection patterns and dynamical model predictions both suggested an enhanced likelihood of drought for southern Africa, but widespread dry ...

Abstract: Extreme phases of the El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have been blamed for precipitation anomalies in many areas of the world. In some areas the probability of above?normal precipitation may be increased ...

Abstract: his article refers to the study of Mason and Weigel, where the generalized discrimination score D has been introduced. This score quantifies whether a set of observed outcomes can be correctly discriminated by the corresponding ...

Abstract: The skill of global-scale sea surface temperature forecasts using a statistically based linear forecasting technique is investigated. Canonical variates are used to make monthly sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts ...

Abstract: Numerous models have been developed in recent years to provide predictions of the state of the El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Predictions of the ENSO phenomenon are usually presented in deterministic form, ...

Abstract: The relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a highly flexible method for representing the quality of dichotomous, categorical, continuous, and probabilistic forecasts. The method is based on ratios that measure ...

Abstract: There are numerous reasons for calculating forecast verification scores, and considerable attention has been given to designing and analyzing the properties of scores that can be used for scientific purposes. Much less ...

Abstract: his paper evaluates the quality of real-time seasonal probabilistic forecasts of the extreme 15% tails of the climatological distribution of temperature and precipitation issued by the International Research Institute for ...