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A Review of Targeted Observations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: t has long been conceived that numerical weather forecasts will benefit from the assimilation of supplementary observations that augment the conventional observational network. In particular, the concept of ?targeting? ...
Using TIGGE Data to Diagnose Initial Perturbations and Their Growth for Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Ensemble initial perturbations around Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) produced by ECMWF, NCEP, and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ensembles are compared using The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment ...
Ensemble-Based Error and Predictability Metrics Associated with Tropical Cyclogenesis. Part II: Wave-Relative Framework
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he predictability of selected variables associated with tropical cyclogenesis is examined using 10-day ECMWF ensemble forecasts for 21 events from the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Variables are associated with the ...
A Statistical Perspective on Wind Profiles and Vertical Wind Shear in Tropical Cyclone Environments of the Northern Hemisphere
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: statistical analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) environmental wind profiles is conducted in order to better understand how vertical wind shear influences TC intensity change. The wind profiles are computed from global ...
Ensemble-Based Error and Predictability Metrics Associated with Tropical Cyclogenesis. Part I: Basinwide Perspective
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: everal metrics are employed to evaluate predictive skill and attempt to quantify predictability using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, with an emphasis on large-scale variables ...
On the Ability of Global Ensemble Prediction Systems to Predict Tropical Cyclone Track Probabilities
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The ability of ensemble prediction systems to predict the probability that a tropical cyclone will fall within a certain area is evaluated. Ensemble forecasts of up to 5 days issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range ...
An Examination of Model Track Forecast Errors for Hurricane Ike (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ources of dynamical model track error for Hurricane Ike (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico are examined. Deterministic and ensemble model output are compared against National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global ...
Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: robabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model?ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts ...
Secondary Eyewall Formation in Tropical Cyclones by Outflow-Jet-Interaction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his study uses idealized numerical simulations to show that the interaction between tropical cyclones and a mid-latitude jet can result in secondary eyewall formation. It is argued that the eddy activity by the outflow-jet ...