Abstract: ccurate estimation of the position of the departure points (d.p.) is crucial for the accuracy of a semi-Lagrangian NWP model. This calculation is often performed applying an implicit discretization to a kinematic equation ...

Abstract: uring the past 30 years the skill in ECMWF numerical forecasts has steadily improved. There are three major contributing factors: 1) improvements in the forecast model, 2) improvements in the data assimilation, and 3) the ...

Abstract: In this paper a study aimed at comparing the perturbation methodologies based on the singular vector ensemble prediction system (SV-EPS) and the breeding vector ensemble prediction system (BV-EPS) in the same model environment ...

Abstract: One desirable property within an ensemble forecast system is to have a one-to-one ratio between the root-mean-square error (rmse) of the ensemble mean and the standard deviation of the ensemble (spread). The ensemble spread ...

Abstract: AbstractThe Thames basin experienced 12 major Atlantic depressions in winter 2013/14, leading to extensive and prolonged fluvial and groundwater flooding. This exceptional weather coincided with highly anomalous meteorological ...

Abstract: he Indian Ocean stands out as the region where the state-of-the-art decadal climate predictions of sea surface temperature (SST) perform the best worldwide for forecast times ranging from the second to the ninth year, ...

Abstract: n 30 October 2012 Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the U.S. East Coast with a devastating impact. Here the performance of the ECMWF forecasts (both high resolution and ensemble) are evaluated together with ensemble forecasts ...

Abstract: edium-range forecasts for Cyclone Joachim, an extratropical cyclone that impacted western Europe on 16 December 2011, consistently predicted a high-impact intense cyclone; however, these forecasts failed to verify. The ...