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RISStatistical Analysis of General Circulation Model Climate Simulation: Sensitivity and Prediction Experiments
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Evaluation of general circulation model (GCM) experiments presents one of the most challenging statistical inference problems in the study of climate. The problem is similar and comparable in difficulty to that encountered ...
Variability of Skill of Long-Range Forecasts and Implications for their Use and Value
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The widely held belief that monthly and seasonal predictions, while containing some information, are not skillful enough to be of economic benefit, is reexamined through an extended example of winter seasonal temperature ...
Some Meteorological, Climatological, and Microclimatological Considerations of the Severe U.S. Heat Wave of Mid-July 1995
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Various aspects of the severe beat wave that affected the midwestern and eastern United States in mid-July 1995 and led to hundreds of heat-related deaths are examined. First, the event is placed in historical context ...
The First Decade of Long-Lead U.S. Seasonal Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The first 10 yr (issued starting in mid-December 1994) of official, long-lead (out to 1 yr) U.S. 3-month mean temperature and precipitation forecasts are verified using a categorical skill score. Through aggregation of ...