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An Experiment to Measure the Value of Statistical Probability Forecasts for Airports
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The economic value of weather forecasts for airports for commercial aviation is investigated by introducing financial data into the decision-making process for fuel carriage by aircraft. Using specific operating costs for ...
Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts via Neural Networks
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Statistical postprocessing of numerical model output can improve forecast quality, especially when model output is combined with surface observations. In this article, the development of nonlinear postprocessors for the ...
Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility Utilizing High-Density Surface Weather Observations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An automated statistical system that utilizes regional high-density surface observations to forecast low ceiling and visibility events in the upper Midwest is presented. The system is based solely upon surface observations ...
The Impact of High-Frequency Surface Weather Observations on Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The skill of an automated statistical forecasting system that uses only hourly (top of the hour) surface observations is compared with a system that utilizes hourly and high-frequency (interhour) surface observations to ...
On the Effect of Correlations on Rank Histograms: Reliability of Temperature and Wind Speed Forecasts from Finescale Ensemble Reforecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The rank histogram (RH) is a visual tool for assessing the reliability of ensemble forecasts (i.e., the degree to which the forecasts and the observations have the same distribution). But it is already known that in certain ...