Abstract: One of the most striking synoptic features of the Australian tropics is the well-developed heat low which persists throughout the summer months. In spite of its significance, the heat low has not, up to the present, been ...

Abstract: Probability of precipitation (POP) for the 12 hours 0600 to 1800 local time was predicted for Melbourne each day for the three months (winter) period June-August 1986 using six different techniques. These were: a Markov ...

Abstract: A ?minimal? model is proposed here for the short-term prediction (up to 12 h ahead) of precipitation occurrence in the tropics. The model is purely statistical, consisting of an optimally weighted linear combination of a ...

Abstract: In this article, the theory is presented for a linear combination of two independent predictive techniques (either probabilistic or binary). It is shown that substantial gains might be expected for optimal weighting of the ...

Abstract: The results of a major real-time trial of techniques for the short-term (12 h ahead) prediction of precipitation for the Australian tropical city of Darwin are described. The trial compared current operational manual ...

Abstract: An efficient method is proposed for performing the grid interpolations required at each advective time step of a multilevel, limited-area semi-Lagrangian model. The distinctive feature of the method is that it is composed ...

Abstract: Having recently demonstrated that significant enhancement of forecast accuracy in a semi-Lagrangian model results from the application of high-order time integration methods to the second-derivative form of the equations ...

Abstract: It is shown both in theory and in practice that the accuracy of time-split finite-difference methods may be increased by the very simple device of incrementally adding a portion of the advection term in the adjustment step ...

Abstract: Traditional finite-difference numerical forecast models usually employ relatively low-order approximations on grids staggered in both the horizontal and the vertical. In a previous study, Purser and Leslie (1988) demonstrated ...

Abstract: The S1, skill score of the operational Australian Region Primitive Equation Model may be, reduced by a statistical correction scheme, in which the model prognosis of MSL pressure is used to predict errors in the MSL pressure ...