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RISUnderstanding of Interdecadal Changes in Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere Summer Tropical–Extratropical Teleconnection
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: wo dominant global-scale teleconnections?namely, western North Pacific?North American (WPNA) and circumglobal teleconnection (CGT)?in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during boreal summer (June?August) have been ...
Global Sea Surface Temperature Prediction Using a Multimodel Ensemble
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In a tier-two seasonal prediction system, prior to AGCM integration, global SSTs should first be predicted as a boundary condition to the AGCM. In this study, a global SST prediction system has been developed as a part of ...
Systematic Error Correction of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature Using a Stepwise Pattern Project Method
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Every dynamical climate prediction model has significant errors in its mean state and anomaly field, thus degrading its performance in climate prediction. In addition to correcting the model?s systematic errors in the mean ...
Changes in the Tropical Pacific SST Trend from CMIP3 to CMIP5 and Its Implication of ENSO
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his study assesses the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) trend and ENSO amplitude by comparing a historical run of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ...
Season-Dependent Forecast Skill of the Leading Forced Atmospheric Circulation Pattern over the North Pacific and North American Region
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ultimodel ensemble (MME) seasonal forecasts are analyzed to evaluate numerical model performance in predicting the leading forced atmospheric circulation pattern over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (NH). Results ...
Ensemble Simulations of Asian–Australian Monsoon Variability by 11 AGCMs
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Ensemble simulations of Asian?Australian monsoon (A?AM) anomalies were evaluated in 11 atmospheric general circulation models for the unprecedented El Niño period of September 1996?August 1998. The models' simulations of ...
Potential Predictability of Summer Mean Precipitation in a Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System with Systematic Error Correction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Potential predictability of summer mean precipitation over the globe is investigated using data obtained from seasonal prediction experiments for 21 yr from 1979 to 1999 using the Korea Meteorological Administration?Seoul ...
Understanding the Anthropogenically Forced Change of Equatorial Pacific Trade Winds in Coupled Climate Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: nderstanding the change of equatorial Pacific trade winds is pivotal for understanding the global mean temperature change and the El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) property change. The weakening of the Walker circulation ...
Eastern Pacific Intraseasonal Variability: A Predictability Perspective
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he eastern Pacific (EPAC) warm pool is a region of strong intraseasonal variability (ISV) during boreal summer. While the EPAC ISV is known to have large-scale impacts that shape the weather and climate in the region (e.g., ...
Predictability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE)
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) represents a primary source of predictability on the intraseasonal time scales and its influence extends from seasonal variations to weather and extreme events. While the last decade has ...