Abstract: For the dynamic normal-mode initialization (DNMI) procedure used in the initialization of the limited-area models, it is shown that it does not succeed in initializing higher vertical modes. An improved initialization ...

Abstract: The expected value for various measures of skill for seasonal climate predictions is determined by the signal-to-noise ratio. The expected value, however, is only realized for long verification time series. In practice, ...

Abstract: In recent years, there has been a steady increase in the emphasis on routine seasonal climate predictions and their potential for enhancing societal benefits and mitigating losses related to climate extremes. It is also ...

Abstract: Based on simulations from nine different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), a comparative assessment of the influence of ENSO SST variability on the first and second moment of the probability density function ...

Abstract: In this study the influence of snow on atmospheric seasonal mean variability in the extratropical latitudes during boreal winter was studied. The motivation for this analysis was to understand the characteristics of ...

Abstract: Based on a 40-member ensemble for the January?March (JFM) seasonal mean for the 1980?2000 period using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), interannual variability in the first and second moments of probability ...

Abstract: ased on the variability of heat content in the upper 300 m of the ocean (HC300), the feasibility of defining an index of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is explored. The motivation for defining the PDO index on HC300 ...

Abstract: aced with the scenario when prediction skill is low, particularly in conjunction with long-range predictions, a commonly proposed solution is that an increase in ensemble size will rectify the issue of low skill. Although ...

Abstract: In the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are specified and the oceanic evolution consistent with air?sea interaction is not included. This omission could lead ...