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RISPoint-to-Area Rescaling of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) is prepared judgmentally by a meteorologist based on a guidance PQPF. The predictand of a judgmental PQPF is the spatially averaged precipitation amount. The ...
Bayesian Correlation Score: A Utilitarian Measure of Forecast Skill
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: From the theory of sufficient comparisons of experiments, a measure of skill is derived for categorical forecasts of continuous predictands. Called Bayesian correlation wore (BCS), the measure is specified in terms of three ...
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Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Probabilities for a Period and Its Subperiods: Theoretical Relations for Forecasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Consider an event definable in terms of two subevents as, for example, the occurrence of precipitation within a 24-h period is definable in terms of the occurrence of precipitation within each of the 12-h subperiods. A ...
Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasts: Toward a New Era in Operational Forecasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Under the auspices of the Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education and Training, pilot research has been conducted from 1991 to 1996 on operational methods for producing Probabilistic Quantitative ...
Local Climatic Guidance for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The predictand of a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) for a river basin has two parts: (i) the basin average precipitation amount accumulated during a fixed period and (ii) the temporal disaggregation ...
The Role of Climatic Autocorrelation in Probabilistic Forecasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A sequence of meteorological predictands of one kind (e.g., temperature) forms a discrete-time, continuous-state stochastic process, which typically is nonstationary and periodic (because of seasonality). Three contributions ...
Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution ...
Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and ...
Comparative Verification of Guidance and Local Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Calibration Analyses
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A comparative verification is reported of 2631 matched pairs of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) prepared daily from 1 October 1992 to 31 October 1996 by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) and the ...