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Signatures of Nonlinear Dynamics in an Idealized Atmospheric Model

Source: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences:;2010:;Volume( 068 ):;issue: 001:;page 3

Author(s): Kondrashov, Dmitri; Kravtsov, Sergey; Ghil, Michael

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Abstract: Signatures of nonlinear dynamics are analyzed by studying the phase-space tendencies of a global baroclinic, quasigeostrophic, three-level (QG3) model with topography. Nonlinear, stochastic, low-order prototypes of the ...

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Data Assimilation for a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model. Part II: Parameter Estimation

Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2008:;volume( 136 ):;issue: 012:;page 5062

Author(s): Kondrashov, Dmitri; Sun, Chaojiao; Ghil, Michael

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Abstract: The parameter estimation problem for the coupled ocean?atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific Ocean is investigated using an advanced sequential estimator [i.e., the extended Kalman filter (EKF)]. The intermediate coupled ...

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Predicting Critical Transitions in ENSO models. Part II: Spatially Dependent Models

Source: Journal of Climate:;2014:;volume( 028 ):;issue: 005:;page 1962

Author(s): Mukhin, Dmitry; Kondrashov, Dmitri; Loskutov, Evgeny; Gavrilov, Andrey; Feigin, Alexander; Ghil, Michael

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Abstract: he present paper is the second part of a two-part study on empirical modeling and prediction of climate variability. This paper deals with spatially distributed data, as opposed to the univariate data of Part I. The choice ...

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Interannual Variability in the North Atlantic Ocean’s Temperature Field and Its Association with the Wind Stress Forcing

Source: Journal of Climate:;2016:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 007:;page 2655

Author(s): Groth, Andreas;Feliks, Yizhak;Kondrashov, Dmitri;Ghil, Michael;AbstractSpectral analyses of the North Atlantic temperature field in the Simple Ocean Data Analysis (SODA) reanalysis identify prominent and statistically significant interannual oscillations along the Gulf Stream front and in large regions of the North Atlantic. A 7?8-yr oscillatory mode is characterized by a basinwide southwest-to-northeast?oriented propagation pattern in the sea surface temperature (SST) field. This pattern is found to be linked to a seesaw in the meridional dipole structure of the zonal wind stress forcing (TAUX). In the subpolar gyre, the SST and TAUX fields of this mode are shown to be in phase opposition, which suggests a cooling effect of the wind stress on the upper ocean layer. Over all, this mode?s temperature field is characterized by a strong equivalent-barotropic component, as shown by covariations in SSTs and sea surface heights, and by phase-coherent behavior of temperature layers at depth with the SST field. Recent improvements of multivariate singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) help separate spatiotemporal patterns. This methodology is developed further and applied to studying the ocean?s response to variability in the atmospheric forcing. Statistical evidence is shown to exist for other mechanisms generating oceanic variability of similar 7?8-yr periodicity in the Gulf Stream region; the latter variability is likewise characterized by a strongly equivalent-barotropic component. Two other modes of biennial variability in the Gulf Stream region are also identified, and it is shown that interannual variability in this region cannot be explained by the ocean?s response to similar variability in the atmospheric forcing alone.

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Abstract: AbstractSpectral analyses of the North Atlantic temperature field in the Simple Ocean Data Analysis (SODA) reanalysis identify prominent and statistically significant interannual oscillations along the Gulf Stream front ...

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Signatures of Nonlinear Dynamics in an Idealized Atmospheric Model

Data Assimilation for a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model. Part II: Parameter Estimation

Predicting Critical Transitions in ENSO models. Part II: Spatially Dependent Models

Interannual Variability in the North Atlantic Ocean’s Temperature Field and Its Association with the Wind Stress Forcing

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Signatures of Nonlinear Dynamics in an Idealized Atmospheric Model

Data Assimilation for a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model. Part II: Parameter Estimation

Predicting Critical Transitions in ENSO models. Part II: Spatially Dependent Models

Interannual Variability in the North Atlantic Ocean’s Temperature Field and Its Association with the Wind Stress Forcing