Abstract: A simple linear two level model of the atmosphere is developed which has a reasonable representation of the external and tropically important baroclinic modes. By blocking the lower layer of the model with a meridional ...

Abstract: Simple linear models with additive stochastic forcing have been rather successful in explaining the observed spectrum of important climate variables. Motivated by this, the authors analyze the spectral character of such a ...

Abstract: In a weather prediction, information flows from the initial conditions to a later prediction. The uncertainty in the initial conditions implies that such a flow should be quantified with tools from probability theory. Using ...

Abstract: A new parameter of dynamical system predictability is introduced that measures the potential utility of predictions. It is shown that this parameter satisfies a generalized second law of thermodynamics in that for Markov ...

Abstract: Three different mechanisms for the generation of ENSO SST anomalies within a simplified tropical Pacific Ocean model are examined: thermocline depth changes, Ekman-induced upwelling anomalies, and zonal advection changes. ...

Abstract: The nature of statistical predictability is analyzed in a T42 global atmospheric model that is able to adequately capture the main features of the midlatitude atmosphere. Key novel features of the present study include ...

Abstract: pace?time spectral analysis has been used frequently in studying observational evidence of convectively coupled equatorial waves. Here 23 yr of brightness temperature Tb data and dynamical reanalysis data are analyzed by ...

Abstract: The nature of predictability is examined in a numerical model relevant to the midlatitude atmosphere and oceans. The approach followed is novel and uses new theoretical tools from information theory, namely entropy ...

Abstract: It is argued that a major fundamental limitation on the predictability of the El Niño?Southern Oscillation phenomenon is provided by the stochastic forcing of the tropical coupled ocean?atmosphere system by atmospheric ...

Abstract: Determination of the reliability of particular ENSO forecasts is of particular importance to end users. Theoretical arguments are developed that indicate that the amplitudes of slowly decaying (or growing) normal modes of ...