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RISThe COLA Anomaly Coupled Model: Ensemble ENSO Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Results are described from a large sample of coupled ocean?atmosphere retrospective forecasts during 1980?99. The prediction system includes a global anomaly coupled general circulation model and a state-of-the-art ocean ...
Seasonal Forecasting of Wind and Waves in the North Atlantic Using a Grand Multimodel Ensemble
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study assesses the skill of multimodel forecasts of 10-m wind speed, significant wave height, and mean wave period in the North Atlantic for the winter months. The 10-m winds from four North American multimodel ensemble ...
Oceanic Rossby Wave Dynamics and the ENSO Period in a Coupled Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Tropical ocean wave dynamics associated with the El Niño?Southern Oscillation cycle in a coupled model are examined. The ocean?atmosphere model consists of statistical atmosphere coupled to a simple reduced gravity model ...
The Impact of Air–Sea Interactions on the Simulation of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The impact of coupled air?sea feedbacks on the simulation of tropical intraseasonal variability is investigated in this study using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System. The simulation ...
The Impact of Air–Sea Interactions on the Predictability of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study investigates whether air?sea interactions contribute to differences in the predictability of the boreal winter tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TISO) using the NCEP operational climate model. A series of ...
The Influence of Atmospheric Noise and Uncertainty in Ocean Initial Conditions on the Limit of Predictability in a Coupled GCM
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The influence of atmospheric stochastic forcing and uncertainty in initial conditions on the limit of predictability of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) is quantified based on comparisons of idealized identical twin ...
Relation between Indian Monsoon Variability and SST
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The relation between the intraseasonal modes of the South Asian monsoon and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical oceans on a daily time scale has been investigated. Long lead?lag relations of the daily SST ...
Validity of a Linear Stochastic View of ENSO in an ACGCM
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Calculations of the optimal perturbations of an anomaly coupled ocean?atmosphere general circulation model (ACGCM) have been performed using a set of linear (Markov) models best fit to 300 years of continuous simulations. ...
Multimodel Ensemble ENSO Prediction with CCSM and CFS
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Results are described from a large sample of coupled ocean?atmosphere retrospective forecasts during 1982?98. The prediction system is based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System ...