Abstract: A statistical methodology is presented for making inferences about changes in mean daily precipitation from the results of general circulation model (GCM) climate experiments. A specialized approach is required because ...

Abstract: Kraus (1977) has demonstrated that subtropical African droughts exhibit statistically significant persistence. It is emphasized, through a further analysis of annual subtropical African rainfall, that the data are highly ...

Abstract: A procedure for making statistical inferences about differences between population means from the output of general circulation model (GCM) climate experiments is presented. A parametric time series modeling approach is ...

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Abstract: A probabilistic model for the sequence of daily amounts of precipitation is proposed. This model is a generalization of the commonly used Markov chain model for the occurrence of precipitation. Methods are given for computing ...

Abstract: A statistical procedure is described for making inferences about changes in climate variability. The fundamental question of how to define climate variability is first addressed, and a definition of intrinsic climate ...

Abstract: A compound Poisson process is proposed as a stochastic model for the total economic damage associated with hurricanes. This model consists of two components, one governing the occurrence of events and another specifying ...

Abstract: A dynamic decision-making problem is considered involving the use of information about the autocorrelation of a climate variable. Specifically, an infinite horizon, discounted version of the dynamic cost-loss ratio model ...

Abstract: The economic value of ensemble-based weather or climate forecasts is generally assessed by taking the ensembles at ?face value.? That is, the forecast probability is estimated as the relative frequency of occurrence of an ...

Abstract: Stochastic models fit to time series of daily precipitation amount generally ignore any year-to-year (i.e., low frequency) source of random variation, and such models are known to underestimate the interannual variance of ...