Abstract: On 7 December 1992, The National Meteorological Center (NMC) started operational ensemble forecasting. The ensemble forecast configuration implemented provides 14 independent forecasts every day verifying on days 1?10. In ...

Abstract: The breeding method has been used to generate perturbations for ensemble forecasting at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly known as the National Meteorological Center) since December 1992. At that ...

Abstract: We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts?a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured ...

Abstract: In atmospheric models that include vertical diffusion and surface fluxes of heat and moisture it is common to observe large amplitude ?fibrillations? associated with these noniinear damping terms. In this paper this ...

Abstract: This paper shows analytically that a reanalysis made with a frozen model can detect the warming trend due to an increase of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere at its full strength (at least 95% level) after a short ...

Abstract: AbstractStrongly coupled data assimilation (SCDA), where observations of one component of a coupled model are allowed to directly impact the analysis of other components, sometimes fails to improve the analysis accuracy ...

Abstract: Eighteen 30-day integrations with the NMC global atmospheric model (T40 resolution) were performed in order to test the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on 30-day forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere ...

Abstract: A simple mechanism is proposed to help explain the observed presence in the atmosphere of open or closed cellular convection. If convection is produced by cooling concentrated near the top of the cloud layer, as in radiative ...

Abstract: On 7 December 1992 NMC began operational ensemble prediction. The ensemble configuration provides 14 independent forecasts every day, verifying on days 1 through 10. The ensemble members are generated through a combination ...

Abstract: This study presents results from mechanistic experiments to clarify the origin and maintenance of the Oklahoma?Texas (OK?TX) drought of the 1998 summer, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global ...