Abstract: A recent paper used a simple artificial example to illustrate the shortcomings of EOFs and rotated EOFs in identifying underlying physical modes. The example raises at least as many questions as it answers. This note ...

Abstract: When a forecast is assessed, a single value for a verification measure is often quoted. This is of limited use, as it needs to be complemented by some idea of the uncertainty associated with the value. If this uncertainty ...

Abstract: Rank histograms are often plotted to evaluate the forecasts produced by an ensemble forecasting system?an ideal rank histogram is ?flat? or uniform. It has been noted previously that the obvious test of ?flatness,? the ...

Abstract: Verification is an important part of any forecasting system. It is usually achieved by computing the value of some measure or score that indicates how good the forecasts are. Many possible verification measures have been ...

Abstract: Often there is a need to consider spatial weighting in methods for finding spatial patterns in climate data. The focus of this paper is on techniques that maximize variance, such as empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). ...

Abstract: Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality ...

Abstract: In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are ?equitable? were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue ...