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RISA Comparative Analysis of Change in the First and Second Moment of the PDF of Seasonal Mean 200-mb Heights with ENSO SSTs
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Based on simulations from nine different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), a comparative assessment of the influence of ENSO SST variability on the first and second moment of the probability density function ...
A Comparison of the Atmospheric Response to ENSO in Coupled and Uncoupled Model Simulations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are specified and the oceanic evolution consistent with air?sea interaction is not included. This omission could lead ...
Ocean Surface Impacts on the Seasonal-Mean Precipitation over the Tropical Indian Ocean
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his study analyzes factors affecting the predictability of seasonal-mean precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The analysis focuses on the contributions from the local sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the ...
An Analysis of Forced and Internal Variability in a Warmer Climate in CCSM3
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: hanges in the mean state and the modes of internal variability due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol concentrations were investigated by comparing a suite of long-term integrations of A1B runs and the ...
Numerical Prediction of Hurricane Opal
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The main theme of this paper is on the intensity forecast of a hurricane (Opal) and interpretation of factors contributing toward it. The paper illustrates the results of assimilation and prediction for Hurricane Opal of ...
U.S. Summer Precipitation and Temperature Patterns Following the Peak Phase of El Niño
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: vidence for spatially coherent, but different, U.S. summer precipitation and surface air temperature anomalies during the evolving phase and during the summers following the peak phase of the winter El Niño is presented. ...
SST-Forced Atmospheric Variability in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: From ensembles of 80 AGCM simulations for every December?January?February (DJF) seasonal mean in the 1980?2000 period, interannual variability in atmospheric response to interannual variations in observed sea surface ...
A New Methodology for Estimating the Unpredictable Component of Seasonal Atmospheric Variability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Predictability limits for seasonal atmospheric climate variability depend on the fraction of variability that is due to factors external to the atmosphere (e.g., boundary conditions) and the fraction that is internal. From ...
Persistence and Predictions of the Remarkable Warm Anomaly in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean during 2014–16
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractIn this work, the evolution and prediction of the persistent and remarkable warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the northeastern Pacific during October 2013?June 2016 are examined. Based on experiments ...
Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) is an important source of information for seasonal climate prediction in many Asian countries affected by monsoon climate. The authors provide a comprehensive analysis of the prediction ...