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Global and Local Skill Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the ...
The Construction of Optimal Perturbations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A three-level quasigeostrophic model of the atmosphere is used to refine a method, based on an ensemble of perturbations, for medium-range forecasting. Using as a hypothesis that it is most efficient to use for the ...
The Quality of Skill Forecasts for a Low-Order Spectral Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in the forecast. The purpose of this paper is to develop a skill-forecasting method. The method is applied to a spectral two-layer quasigeostrophic atmospheric ...
Methods for Ensemble Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: It is desirable to filter the unpredictable components from a medium-range forecast. Such a filtered forecast can be obtained by averaging an ensemble of predictions that started from slightly different initial atmospheric ...
Review of the Ensemble Kalman Filter for Atmospheric Data Assimilation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his paper reviews the development of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for atmospheric data assimilation. Particular attention is devoted to recent advances and current challenges. The distinguishing properties of three ...
Prediction Experiments with Two-Member Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Numerical experiments have been performed to determine whether it is possible to improve the quality of atmospheric forecasts by using the average of two predictions starting from slightly perturbed initial conditions. The ...
Using Ensemble Forecasts for Model Validation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An experimental ensemble forecasting system has been set up in an attempt to simulate all sources of forecast error. Errors in the observations, in the surface fields, and in the forecast model have been simulated. This ...
Ensemble Kalman Filter Configurations and Their Performance with the Logistic Map
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This paper examines ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) performance for a number of different EnKF configurations. The study is performed in a perfect-model context using the logistic map as forecast model. The focus is on EnKF ...
Data Assimilation Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter Technique
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The possibility of performing data assimilation using the flow-dependent statistics calculated from an ensemble of short-range forecasts (a technique referred to as ensemble Kalman filtering) is examined in an idealized ...