Abstract: A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the ...

Abstract: A three-level quasigeostrophic model of the atmosphere is used to refine a method, based on an ensemble of perturbations, for medium-range forecasting. Using as a hypothesis that it is most efficient to use for the ...

Abstract: A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in the forecast. The purpose of this paper is to develop a skill-forecasting method. The method is applied to a spectral two-layer quasigeostrophic atmospheric ...

Abstract: No abstract available.

Abstract: It is desirable to filter the unpredictable components from a medium-range forecast. Such a filtered forecast can be obtained by averaging an ensemble of predictions that started from slightly different initial atmospheric ...

Abstract: his paper reviews the development of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for atmospheric data assimilation. Particular attention is devoted to recent advances and current challenges. The distinguishing properties of three ...

Abstract: Numerical experiments have been performed to determine whether it is possible to improve the quality of atmospheric forecasts by using the average of two predictions starting from slightly perturbed initial conditions. The ...

Abstract: An experimental ensemble forecasting system has been set up in an attempt to simulate all sources of forecast error. Errors in the observations, in the surface fields, and in the forecast model have been simulated. This ...

Abstract: This paper examines ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) performance for a number of different EnKF configurations. The study is performed in a perfect-model context using the logistic map as forecast model. The focus is on EnKF ...

Abstract: The possibility of performing data assimilation using the flow-dependent statistics calculated from an ensemble of short-range forecasts (a technique referred to as ensemble Kalman filtering) is examined in an idealized ...