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RISAn Empirical Model of Barotropic Atmospheric Dynamics and Its Response to Tropical Forcing
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A linear empirical model of barotropic atmospheric dynamics is constructed in which the streamfunction tendency field is optimally predicted using the concurrent streamfunction state as a predictor. The prediction equations ...
Validation of a Receptor–Dispersion Model Coupled with a Genetic Algorithm Using Synthetic Data
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A methodology for characterizing emission sources is presented that couples a dispersion and transport model with a pollution receptor model. This coupling allows the use of the backward (receptor) model to calibrate the ...
Source Characterization with a Genetic Algorithm–Coupled Dispersion–Backward Model Incorporating SCIPUFF
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This paper extends the approach of coupling a forward-looking dispersion model with a backward model using a genetic algorithm (GA) by incorporating a more sophisticated dispersion model [the Second-Order Closure Integrated ...
Modons in Shear Flow
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Modons in shear flow are computed as equilibrium solutions of the equivalent barotropic vorticity equation using a numerical Newton?Kantorovich iterative technique with double Fourier spectral expansion. The model is given ...
The Regime Dependence of Optimally Weighted Ensemble Model Consensus Forecasts of Surface Temperature
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Previous methods for creating consensus forecasts weight individual ensemble members based upon their relative performance over the previous N days, implicitly making a short-term persistence assumption about the underlying ...
Interpretable Deep Learning for Spatial Analysis of Severe Hailstorms
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractDeep learning models, such as convolutional neural networks, utilize multiple specialized layers to encode spatial patterns at different scales. In this study, deep learning models are compared with standard machine ...
Ensemble Variance Calibration for Representing Meteorological Uncertainty for Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In the event of the release of a dangerous atmospheric contaminant, an atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) model is often used to provide forecasts of the resulting contaminant dispersion affecting the population. ...
A Method to Assess the Wind and Solar Resource and to Quantify Interannual Variability over the United States under Current and Projected Future Climate
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) collaborated to develop a method to assess the interannual variability of wind and solar power over the contiguous United ...
Investigation of Ensemble Variance as a Measure of True Forecast Variance
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he uncertainty in meteorological predictions is of interest for applications ranging from economic to recreational to public safety. One common method to estimate uncertainty is by using meteorological ensembles. These ...
An Objective Methodology for Configuring and Down-Selecting an NWP Ensemble for Low-Level Wind Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: nsembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model predictions are used for a variety of forecasting applications. Such ensembles quantify the uncertainty of the prediction because the spread in the ensemble predictions ...