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RISNorth American Tropical Cyclone Landfall and SST: A Statistical Model Study
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: statistical?stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to examine the relationship between climate and landfall rates along the North American Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. ...
A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, ...
ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: mprovements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. ...
Comparison of Local and Basinwide Methods for Risk Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Landfall
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Two statistical methods for predicting the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall on sections of the North American coastline are compared. The first method?the ?local model??is derived exclusively from historical ...
Transit-Time and Tracer-Age Distributions in Geophysical Flows
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Transport in the atmosphere and in the ocean is the result of the complex action of time-dependent and often highly turbulent flow. A useful diagnostic that summarizes the rate at which fluid elements are transported from ...
SynthETC: A Statistical Model for Severe Winter Storm Hazard on Eastern North America
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: e develop, evaluate, and apply ?SynthETC,? a statistical-stochastic model of winter extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) over eastern North America. SynthETC simulates the life cycle of ETCs from formation to termination, and ...
Pacific Hurricane Landfalls on Mexico and SST
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: statistical model of northeastern Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones (TCs) is developed and used to estimate hurricane landfall rates along the coast of Mexico. Mean annual landfall rates for 1971?2014 are compared with mean ...
The Diurnal Cycle of West Pacific Deep Convection and Its Relation to the Spatial and Temporal Variation of Tropical MCSs
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Infrared (IR) and visible satellite data from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS-4) with 5-km spatial and 1-h temporal resolution were used to examine the diurnal cycle of deep convection over a sector ...
On Ocean Transport Diagnostics: The Idealized Age Tracer and the Age Spectrum
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The idealized age tracer is commonly used to diagnose transport in ocean models and to help interpret ocean measurements. In most studies only the steady-state distribution, the result of many centuries of model integration, ...
A Generalized Transport Theory: Water-Mass Composition and Age
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A general theory to describe and understand advective and diffusive ocean transport is reported. It allows any passive tracer field with an atmospheric source to be constructed by superposing sea surface contributions with ...