Abstract: One widely accepted measure of the utility of ensemble prediction systems is the relationship between ensemble spread and deterministic forecast accuracy. Unfortunately, this relationship is often characterized by spread?error ...

Abstract: Motivated by the promising results of global-scale ensemble forecasting, a number of groups have attempted mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF), focusing mainly over the eastern half of the United States. To ...

Abstract: Virtually all numerical forecast models possess systematic biases. Although attempts to reduce such biases at individual stations using simple statistical corrections have met with some success, there is an acute need for ...

Abstract: he authors introduce two ways to produce locally calibrated grid-based probabilistic forecasts of temperature. Both start from the Global Bayesian model averaging (Global BMA) statistical postprocessing method, which has ...

Abstract: Wind direction is an angular variable, as opposed to weather quantities such as temperature, quantitative precipitation, or wind speed, which are linear variables. Consequently, traditional model output statistics and ...

Abstract: This paper examines the potential of regional environmental prediction by focusing on the local forecasting effort in the Pacific Northwest. A consortium of federal, state, and local agencies have funded the development ...