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RISEl Niño: Catastrophe or Opportunity
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, generates a significant proportion of short-term climate variations globally, ...
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Publisher: American Meteorological Society
The Energetics of El Niño and La Niña
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Data from a realistic model of the ocean, forced with observed atmospheric conditions for the period 1953?92, are analyzed to determine the energetics of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. The work done by ...
Statistical Recalibration of GCM Forecasts over Southern Africa Using Model Output Statistics
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A technique for producing regional rainfall forecasts for southern Africa is developed that statistically maps or ?recalibrates? large-scale circulation features produced by the ECHAM3.6 general circulation model (GCM) to ...
Probabilistic Precipitation Anomalies Associated with ENSO
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Extreme phases of the El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have been blamed for precipitation anomalies in many areas of the world. In some areas the probability of above?normal precipitation may be increased ...
El Niño–Induced Tropical Droughts in Climate Change Projections
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: El Niño brings widespread drought (i.e., precipitation deficit) to the tropics. Stronger or more frequent El Niño events in the future and/or their intersection with local changes in the mean climate toward a future with ...
Probabilistic Multimodel Regional Temperature Change Projections
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Regional temperature change projections for the twenty-first century are generated using a multimodel ensemble of atmosphere?ocean general circulation models. The models are assigned coefficients jointly, using a Bayesian ...
Predictive Skill of AGCM Seasonal Climate Forecasts Subject to Different SST Prediction Methodologies
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study examines skill of retrospective forecasts using the ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with predicted sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from methods of varying complexity. The SST fields ...
IMPROVING SEASONAL PREDICTION PRACTICES THROUGH ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The Seasonal Diagnostics Consortium of the Applied Research Centers is engaging in a real-time activity to detect and understand the role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in observed climate anomalies. The activity ...
Improved Combination of Multiple Atmospheric GCM Ensembles for Seasonal Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An improved Bayesian optimal weighting scheme is developed and used to combine six atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) seasonal hindcast ensembles. The approach is based on the prior belief that the forecast ...