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RISBootstrap methods for statistical inference. Part I: Comparative forecast verification for continuous variables
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: When making statistical inferences, bootstrap resampling methods are often appealing because of less stringent assumptions about the distribution of the statistic(s) of interest. However, the procedures are not free of ...
Bootstrap methods for statistical inference. Part II: Extreme-value analysis
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This paper is the sequel to a companion paper on bootstrap resampling that reviews bootstrap methodology for making statistical inferences for atmospheric science applications where the necessary assumptions are often not ...
Spatial Forecast Verification: Baddeley’s Delta Metric Applied to the ICP Test Cases
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: mathematical displacement metric, Baddeley?s ?, is examined for verifying gridded forecasts against gridded observations using the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project test cases. Results are ...
Testing Competing Precipitation Forecasts Accurately and Efficiently: The Spatial Prediction Comparison Test
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: hich model is best? Many challenges exist when testing competing forecast models, especially for those with high spatial resolution. Spatial correlation, double penalties, and small-scale errors are just a few such challenges. ...
A New Characterization within the Spatial Verification Framework for False Alarms, Misses, and Overall Patterns
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his paper proposes new diagnostic plots that take advantage of the lack of symmetry in the mean-error distance measure (MED) for binary images to yield a new concept of false alarms and misses appropriate to the spatial ...
Analyzing the Image Warp Forecast Verification Method on Precipitation Fields from the ICP
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Image warping for spatial forecast verification is applied to the test cases employed by the Spatial Forecast Verification Intercomparison Project (ICP), which includes both real and contrived cases. A larger set of cases ...
Competing Forecast Verification: Using the Power-Divergence Statistic for Testing the Frequency of “Better”
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Application of Spatial Verification Methods to Idealized and NWP-Gridded Precipitation Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Several spatial forecast verification methods have been developed that are suited for high-resolution precipitation forecasts. They can account for the spatial coherence of precipitation and give credit to a forecast that ...
Computationally Efficient Spatial Forecast Verification Using Baddeley’s Delta Image Metric
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An important focus of research in the forecast verification community is the development of alternative verification approaches for quantitative precipitation forecasts, as well as for other spatial forecasts. The need for ...
Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate ...