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Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe variability of Indo-Pacific SST on seasonal to multidecadal time scales is investigated using a recently introduced technique called nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA). Through this technique, drawbacks ...
Indo-Pacific Variability on Seasonal to Multidecadal Time Scales. Part II: Multiscale Atmosphere–Ocean Linkages
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe coupled atmosphere?ocean variability of the Indo-Pacific domain on seasonal to multidecadal time scales is investigated in CCSM4 and in observations through nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA). It is ...
Quantifying the Predictive Skill in Long-Range Forecasting. Part I: Coarse-Grained Predictions in a Simple Ocean Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the long-range coarse-grained predictive skill in a perfect-model environment. Central to the scheme is the notion that long-range forecasting involves regimes; ...
Quantifying the Predictive Skill in Long-Range Forecasting. Part II: Model Error in Coarse-Grained Markov Models with Application to Ocean-Circulation Regimes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictive skill and model error in imperfect climate models for long-range forecasting. Here, of key importance is a climate equilibrium consistency test for ...
Reemergence Mechanisms for North Pacific Sea Ice Revealed through Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his paper studies spatiotemporal modes of variability of sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific sector in a comprehensive climate model and observations. These modes are obtained via ...
Arctic Sea Ice Reemergence: The Role of Large-Scale Oceanic and Atmospheric Variability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: rctic sea ice reemergence is a phenomenon in which spring sea ice anomalies are positively correlated with fall anomalies, despite a loss of correlation over the intervening summer months. This work employs a novel data ...
Symmetric and Antisymmetric Convection Signals in the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Part I: Basic Modes in Infrared Brightness Temperature
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his work studies the significance of north?south asymmetry in convection associated with the 20?90-day Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) propagating across the equatorial Indo-Pacific warm pool region. Satellite infrared ...
Kernel Analog Forecasting of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThis paper presents the results of forecasting the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) through the use of satellite-obtained global brightness temperature data with ...
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