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RISForecasting Tornadoes Using Convection-Permitting Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ourly maximum fields of simulated storm diagnostics from experimental versions of convection-permitting models (CPMs) provide valuable information regarding severe weather potential. While past studies have focused on ...
Just What Is “Good”? Musings on Hail Forecast Verification through Evaluation of FV3-HAILCAST Hail Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Analysis of End User Access of Warn-on-Forecast Guidance Products during an Experimental Forecasting Task
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Model Configuration versus Driving Model: Influences on Next-Day Regional Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts during a Real-Time Experiment
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Just What Is “Good”? Musings on Hail Forecast Verification through Evaluation of FV3-HAILCAST Hail Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Incorporating UH Occurrence Time to Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Probabilistic ensemble-derived tornado forecasts generated from convection-allowing models often use hourly maximum updraft helicity (UH) alone or in combination with environmental parameters as a proxy for right-moving ...
What Does a Convection-Allowing Ensemble of Opportunity Buy Us in Forecasting Thunderstorms?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Blended Probabilistic Tornado Forecasts: Combining Climatological Frequencies with NSSL–WRF Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractAttempts at probabilistic tornado forecasting using convection-allowing models (CAMs) have thus far used CAM attribute [e.g., hourly maximum 2?5-km updraft helicity (UH)] thresholds, treating them as binary ...
Initial Development and Testing of a Convection-Allowing Model Scorecard
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Evaluation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) is critical for both forecasters and researchers. Through such evaluation, forecasters can understand the strengths and weaknesses of NWP guidance, and researchers can work ...