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RISValidating Interannual Variability in an Ensemble of AGCM Simulations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This paper is an effort to explore general statistical procedures for validating the interannual variability in ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model simulations. The authors propose an estimation method for ...
A Study of Predictable Patterns for Seasonal Forecasting of New Zealand Rainfall
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A recently developed variance decomposition approach is applied to study the causes of the predictability of New Zealand seasonal mean rainfall. In terms of predictability, the Southern Oscillation is identified as being ...
Statistical Prediction of Seasonal Mean Southern Hemisphere 500-hPa Geopotential Heights
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A recently developed variance decomposition approach is applied to predict seasonal mean 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. In terms of predictability of both the winter and summer height ...
Variability of Multisite Decadal Running Means Arising from Year-To-Year Fluctuations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
A Theoretical Model of Australian Northwest Cloudband Disturbances and Southern Hemisphere Storm Tracks: The Role of SST Anomalies
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The author examine the effects of an enhanced sea surface temperature gradient, between the central Indian Ocean and the Indonesian archipelago, on the structure of the monthly averaged three-dimensional July global ...
Flow over Topography and Instability on Beta-Planes: The Effects of Different Expansion Representations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: We examine the linear instability properties of exact steady solutions for barotropic flow over topography in a beta-plane channel using models with different expansion representations and truncations. We compare our results ...
Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks and Teleconnection Patterns in Primitive Equation and Quasigeostrophic Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A study is made of the importance of horizontally varying static stability and nongeostrophic effects upon the location of Northern Hemisphere storm track instability modes and mature anomaly teleconnection pattern modes ...
Monsoon Disturbances, Intraseasonal Oscillations, Teleconnection Patterns, Blocking, and Storm Tracks of the Global Atmosphere during January 1979: Linear Theory
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The results of a study are presented that indicate that a wide variety of atmospheric disturbances, including those associated with storm tracks and blocking in both hemispheres, quasi-stationary global teleconnection ...
Southern Hemisphere Storm Tracks, Blocking, and Low-Frequency Anomalies in a Primitive Equation Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The results of a study are presented that indicate three-dimensional instability theory is able to generate analogs of a wide variety of Southern Hemisphere observed fluctuations including those associated with cyclogenesis, ...
Flow over Topography and Instability on a Sphere
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The linear instability properties of exact steady-state solutions is examined for barotropic flow over topography on a sphere, in both severely truncated and high-resolution formulations. In particular, we consider the ...