Abstract: Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that generates calibrated and sharp predictive probability density functions (PDFs) from forecast ensembles. It represents the predictive PDF as a ...

Abstract: Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical way of postprocessing forecast ensembles to create predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. It represents the predictive PDF as a weighted ...

Abstract: This paper describes the University of Washington Probability Forecast (PROBCAST), a Web-based portal to probabilistic weather predictions over the Pacific Northwest. PROBCAST products are derived from the output of a ...