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RISSensitivity of Idealized Supercell Simulations to Horizontal Grid Spacing: Implications for Warn-on-Forecast
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) program aims to deploy real-time, convection-allowing, ensemble data assimilation and prediction systems to improve short-term forecasts of tornadoes, flooding, lightning, damaging wind, and large ...
Practical Predictability of Supercells: Exploring Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Initial Condition Spread
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractAs convection-allowing ensembles are routinely used to forecast the evolution of severe thunderstorms, developing an understanding of storm-scale predictability is critical. Using a full-physics numerical weather ...
A Rose by Any Other Name: On Basic Scores from the 2 × 2 Table and the Plethora of Names Attached to Them
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Sensitivity of Supercell Simulations to Initial-Condition Resolution
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractObservational and model resolution limitations currently preclude analysis of the smallest scales important to numerical prediction of convective storms. These missing scales can be recovered if the forecast model ...
Using Machine Learning to Generate Storm-Scale Probabilistic Guidance of Severe Weather Hazards in the Warn-on-Forecast System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
A Machine Learning Explainability Tutorial for Atmospheric Sciences
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Exploring the Usefulness of Downscaling Free Forecasts from the Warn-on-Forecast System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Using Machine Learning to Predict Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Skill: Evaluation with the NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society