Abstract: A sequence of meteorological predictands of one kind (e.g., temperature) forms a discrete-time, continuous-state stochastic process, which typically is nonstationary and periodic (because of seasonality). Three contributions ...

Abstract: The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution ...