Abstract: The likelihood ratio of the data for a hypothesis of some change, relative to the hypothesis of no change, is a suitable statistical measure for the detection of climate change. Likelihood ratios calculated on the basis ...

Abstract: A method is proposed for deriving daily climatological values that are consistent with a given set of monthly means or monthly totals. It involves making an adjustment to a harmonic analysis of the monthly values. The ...

Abstract: Using 5 years of daily initialized height fields from the National Meteorological Center, expressed as coefficients of spherical harmonies, a climatology of the annual cycle has been formulated for the 1000, 700, 500 and ...

Abstract: The problem of decision making in applied meteorology is approached from the point of view of decision theory and subjectivist statistics. The modern concept of ?utility? is discussed, and optional rules for decision making ...

Abstract: The meaning of probabilistic weather forecasts is discussed from the point of view of a subjectivist concept, of probability. The prior degree of belief of probabilities of the weather in question, for a given forecast ...

Abstract: The relationship between point and area precipitation probabilities is examined on the basis of a simple model in which circular precipitation cells of uniform size are distributed at random over an area that is large ...

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Abstract: tract

Abstract: tract

Abstract: When the initial values, or the parameters, of prognostic equations are not known with certainty, there must also be errors in the solution. The initial conditions may be represented by an ensemble, each member of which ...