Search
Now showing items 1-10 of 37
Tracking Hurricanes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: There is widespread concern about the recent increase in North Atlantic hurricane activity. Results here suggest that fledgling storms tracking east to west at low latitudes are more likely to reach hurricane intensity ...
Estimating “Outbreak”-Level Tornado Counts and Casualties from Environmental Variables
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Hurricane Clusters in the Vicinity of Florida
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: odels that predict annual U.S. hurricane activity assume a Poisson distribution for the counts. Here the authors show that this assumption applied to Florida hurricanes leads to a forecast that underpredicts both the number ...
A Consensus Model for Seasonal Hurricane Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The authors apply a procedure called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) for examining the utility of a set of covariates for predicting the distribution of U.S. hurricane counts and demonstrating a consensus model for seasonal ...
The 1995 and 1996 North Atlantic Hurricane Seasons: A Return of the Tropical-Only Hurricane
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Hurricane activity over the North Atlantic basin during 1995 and 1996 is compared to the combined hurricane activity over the previous four years (1991?94). The earlier period produced a total of 15 hurricanes compared to ...
Consensus on Climate Trends in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: esearch on trends in western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) activity is limited by problems associated with different wind speed conversions used by the various meteorological agencies. This paper uses a quantile ...
Comparison of Hindcasts Anticipating the 2004 Florida Hurricane Season
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Advances in hurricane climate science allow forecasts of seasonal landfall activity to be made. The authors begin with a review of the forecast methods available in the literature. They then reformulate the methods using ...
The 1995 and 1996 North Atlantic Hurricane Seasons: A Return of the Tropical-Only Hurricane
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Hurricane activity over the North Atlantic basin during 1995 and 1996 is compared to the combined hurricane activity over the previous four years (1991?94). The earlier period produced a total of 15 hurricanes compared to ...
A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Seasonal Hurricane Modeling
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A hierarchical Bayesian strategy for modeling annual U.S. hurricane counts from the period 1851?2000 is illustrated. The approach is based on a separation of the reliable twentieth-century records from the less precise ...