Abstract: There is widespread concern about the recent increase in North Atlantic hurricane activity. Results here suggest that fledgling storms tracking east to west at low latitudes are more likely to reach hurricane intensity ...

Abstract: No Abstract available.

Abstract: odels that predict annual U.S. hurricane activity assume a Poisson distribution for the counts. Here the authors show that this assumption applied to Florida hurricanes leads to a forecast that underpredicts both the number ...

Abstract: The authors apply a procedure called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) for examining the utility of a set of covariates for predicting the distribution of U.S. hurricane counts and demonstrating a consensus model for seasonal ...

Abstract: Hurricane activity over the North Atlantic basin during 1995 and 1996 is compared to the combined hurricane activity over the previous four years (1991?94). The earlier period produced a total of 15 hurricanes compared to ...

Abstract: esearch on trends in western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) activity is limited by problems associated with different wind speed conversions used by the various meteorological agencies. This paper uses a quantile ...

Abstract: Advances in hurricane climate science allow forecasts of seasonal landfall activity to be made. The authors begin with a review of the forecast methods available in the literature. They then reformulate the methods using ...

Abstract: Hurricane activity over the North Atlantic basin during 1995 and 1996 is compared to the combined hurricane activity over the previous four years (1991?94). The earlier period produced a total of 15 hurricanes compared to ...

Abstract: A hierarchical Bayesian strategy for modeling annual U.S. hurricane counts from the period 1851?2000 is illustrated. The approach is based on a separation of the reliable twentieth-century records from the less precise ...