Abstract: n analog ensemble (AnEn) is constructed by first matching up the current forecast from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with similar past forecasts. The verifying observation from each match is then used as an ...

Abstract: Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) ensemble currently perform below their full potential quality (i.e., accuracy ...

Abstract: This study developed and evaluated a short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system with the goal of producing useful, mesoscale forecast probability (FP). Real-time, 0?48-h SREF predictions were produced and analyzed for ...

Abstract: his study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with ...

Abstract: mbiguity is uncertainty in the prediction of forecast uncertainty, or in the forecast probability of a specific event, associated with random error in an ensemble forecast probability density function. In ensemble forecasting ...

Abstract: his study explores an analog-based method to generate an ensemble [analog ensemble (AnEn)] in which the probability distribution of the future state of the atmosphere is estimated with a set of past observations that ...