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A Bayesian Framework for Verification and Recalibration of Ensemble Forecasts: How Uncertain is NAO Predictability?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: redictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain because of limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that ...
Comments on “Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and Limitations”
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Predictions of Climate Several Years Ahead Using an Improved Decadal Prediction System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ecadal climate predictions are now established as a source of information on future climate alongside longer-term climate projections. This information has the potential to provide key evidence for decisions on climate ...