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RISAn Approach to Generating Mutually Independent Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Forecasts: Orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: onditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is the initial perturbation that satisfies a certain physical constraint and causes the largest nonlinear evolution at prediction time. To yield mutually independent initial ...
Does Model Parameter Error Cause a Significant “Spring Predictability Barrier” for El Niño Events in the Zebiak–Cane Model?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ithin the framework of the Zebiak?Cane model, the approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is used to study the effect of model parameter errors on El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. ...
Seasonally Alternate Roles of the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation in Tropical Pacific Zonal Wind and ENSO
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Dynamics and Predictability of High-Impact Weather and Climate Events
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Using the Orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations Approach to Address the Uncertainties of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Generated by the WRF Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Predictable Patterns of Wintertime Surface Air Temperature in Northern Hemisphere and Their Predictability Sources in SEAS5
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Based on 36-year hindcasts from the fifth-generation seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (SEAS5), the most predictable patterns of the wintertime 2-m air temperature (T2m) in ...
Using Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation to Generate Initial Perturbations in ENSO Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society