Abstract: No Abstract available.

Abstract: Trustworthy probabilistic projections of regional climate are essential for society to plan for future climate change, and yet, by the nonlinear nature of climate, finite computational models of climate are inherently ...

Abstract: he Indian Ocean stands out as the region where the state-of-the-art decadal climate predictions of sea surface temperature (SST) perform the best worldwide for forecast times ranging from the second to the ninth year, ...

Abstract: This study presents a new simple approach for combining empirical with raw (i.e., not bias corrected) coupled model ensemble forecasts in order to make more skillful interval forecasts of ENSO. A Bayesian normal model has ...

Abstract: The ranked probability skill score (RPSS) is a widely used measure to quantify the skill of ensemble forecasts. The underlying score is defined by the quadratic norm and is comparable to the mean squared error (mse) but ...

Abstract: The Indian summer monsoon rainfall is the net result of an ensemble of synoptic disturbances, many of which are extremely intense. Sporadic systems often bring extreme amounts of rain over only a few days, which can have ...

Abstract: This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that ...

Abstract: A multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to ...